North Korea's missile threat: Is it credible?

North Korea have detailed plans to attack the waters surrounding Guam in a show of power against the United States of America. They have also vowed to continue their weapons programme, and to defy America's repeated threats.

Ignoring the geopolitical issues surrounding the debate, the question arises, how credible is the Korean threat? There is no doubt that Korea does have missiles capable of reaching the United States in theory, but in practice, the accuracy of Korea's system is in severe doubt, and this along with the defensive capabilities of the US means that any direct damage to the US from North Korea is highly unlikely

Where North Korea do have an edge though is that they have the potential to cause immense damage to South Korea. With Seoul being a highly populated capital close to the border, the artillery of North Korea has potential to cause immense damage. However, once again, the lack of reliability of the North Korean weapons means there is a huge possibility that the damage may not be as great as feared. Yet even a conservative estimate of about 1-2 million losses in Seoul is enough to deter an attack.

With Trump on the warpath, the unthinkable could happen. But even with this, the chances of North Korea being able to launch a full scale assault and causing immense damage is unlikely. Especially if the US attacks first on North Korean positions close to the border.

South Korea to buy 36 AH-64E Apaches

Boeing has won a contract to supply South Korea with AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, defeating the Bell AH-1Z Zulu and Turkish Aerospace T-129B for the 36 helicopter AHX requirement.

"Boeing is pleased with the announcement that the Republic of Korea has selected the AH-64E Apache as its new heavy-attack helicopter," the US airframer said in an email to Flightglobal. "We look forward to working with the US Army and the Republic of Korea Army as they finalise the Foreign Military Sales contract for 36 AH-64E Apaches."

According to US Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notifications in September 2012, the Apache deal is worth $3.6 billion, considerably higher than the proposed AH-1Z contract, which was valued at $2.6 billion.

"The heavily-armed attack helicopters will replace aging helicopters deployed by the army to counter threats by the North Korean military's armoured units and deter provocations," Seoul's Defense Acquisition Program Administration spokesman Baek Yoon-Hyeong was reported as saying.

Industry sources close to the competition had expected a decision in late 2012, but this was delayed by South Korea's presidential election in December 2012.

This is Seoul's second major acquisition in a month. On 10 April it selected the Raytheon Advanced Combat Radar (RACR) to upgrade its fleet of Lockheed Martin F-16C/D fighters.

Once the US government gives the go-ahead, Raytheon will deliver 134 of the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar systems to South Korea. Deliveries are expected to start in late 2016, after the company completes development work.

Industry sources say that Seoul is likely to make a decision on the F-X III competition for 60 fighters in June. The three contenders for the deal, possibly the world's biggest fighter buy this year, are the Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle, Lockheed Martin F-35A Joint Strike Fighter and Eurofighter Typhoon. The type will replace Seoul's obsolescent fleet of McDonnell Douglas F-4E Phantoms.

Heightened tensions with North Korea this year have prompted Seoul to push forward key defence purchases, industry sources say.

Northrop’s SABR ‘well positioned’ to clinch USAF F-16 radar upgrade effort

Northrop Grumman says that its Scalable Agile Beam Radar (SABR) is "well positioned" to secure contracts to upgrade US Air Force and Taiwanese Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcons with a new active electronically scanned array (AESA) system despite a recent loss to rival Raytheon in South Korea.

"The US Air Force and Taiwan are working hand-in-hand together," says Joseph Ensor, Northrop's vice president for its targeting systems division. "They're a separate programme from what Korea did with their competition."

Lockheed Martin

South Korea conducted a commercial source selection for their new radar, ultimately selecting the Raytheon Advanced Combat Radar which will be integrated onto the F-16 by BAE Systems.

The USAF, meanwhile, has selected Lockheed to be its prime integrator for the combat avionics programmed extension suite (CAPES) upgrade. The service has left it up to the company to choose a new radar for the USAF's 300 healthiest F-16s.

"I think we're well positioned based on the technology and our offering," Ensor says. "Nothing's a given, we have to compete and win that programme, but I still believe we're well positioned.

Ensor says that the USAF's CAPES programme will be the starting point for future F-16 upgrade foreign military sales (FMS) contracts, including the Taiwan upgrade effort. "Taiwan will be one of the launch customers for this F-16 AESA upgrade," he says.

Northrop expects that Lockheed will pick a radar for the CAPES programme in August, Ensor says.

Picking the SABR would offer many benefits for the USAF and Lockheed, Ensor says. The SABR is highly common in terms of hardware and software with radars Northrop is already building for the USAF's fifth-generation fighter fleet comprised of Lockheed-built F-22 Raptors and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

For future upgrades, that means software developed for the Raptor's APG-77 radar and F-35's APG-81 system can be ported over to the SABR with only minor tweaks, Ensor says. Moreover, pilots transferring from one airframe to another would be familiar with many of the displays, company officials say.