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Thursday 10 August 2017

North Korea's missile threat: Is it credible?

North Korea have detailed plans to attack the waters surrounding Guam in a show of power against the United States of America. They have also vowed to continue their weapons programme, and to defy America's repeated threats.

Ignoring the geopolitical issues surrounding the debate, the question arises, how credible is the Korean threat? There is no doubt that Korea does have missiles capable of reaching the United States in theory, but in practice, the accuracy of Korea's system is in severe doubt, and this along with the defensive capabilities of the US means that any direct damage to the US from North Korea is highly unlikely

Where North Korea do have an edge though is that they have the potential to cause immense damage to South Korea. With Seoul being a highly populated capital close to the border, the artillery of North Korea has potential to cause immense damage. However, once again, the lack of reliability of the North Korean weapons means there is a huge possibility that the damage may not be as great as feared. Yet even a conservative estimate of about 1-2 million losses in Seoul is enough to deter an attack.

With Trump on the warpath, the unthinkable could happen. But even with this, the chances of North Korea being able to launch a full scale assault and causing immense damage is unlikely. Especially if the US attacks first on North Korean positions close to the border.